How political power shapes perceptions of free speech

Two years in review for FIRE’s National Speech Index

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For the past two years, FIRE’s National Speech Index has tracked Americans’ views on free expression — whether the country is moving in the right or wrong direction, how secure people believe free speech to be, and how often they self-censor.

That period has hardly been quiet. Americans have lived through a presidential transition, major political upheaval, and widespread campus protests. Our data offers a window into how public attitudes toward free speech have responded to those events.

The headline finding is consistent — and sobering. Over the past two years, Americans have generally said the country is headed in the wrong direction when it comes to people’s ability to freely express their views. But those judgments are highly sensitive to political loyalties.

Prior to the 2024 presidential election, most Democrats thought things were headed in the right direction, compared to only a minority of Republicans and Independents. After Donald Trump’s election, those views flipped. Clear majorities of Republicans now say the country is moving in the right direction, while Democrats have grown markedly pessimistic.

Perceptions of the security of free speech follow the same partisan arc. In October 2025, more Americans said the right to freedom of speech is “not at all secure” (22%) than said it is “very” or “completely” secure (15%). That represents a stark reversal from January 2025, when 23% viewed free speech as very secure and fewer than one in 10 believed it was not secure at all.

Among Democrats, nearly one in three now say freedom of speech is “not at all secure,” a sharp increase from roughly one in 12 who held that view prior to Trump’s election and inauguration. Independents show a similar, though less pronounced, shift. Republicans, by contrast, are less likely to view free speech as insecure than they did during the final months of Joe Biden’s presidency.

Yet while Americans’ perceptions of free speech rise and fall with political fortunes, other core indicators tell a different story. Self-censorship has remained remarkably stable. Across the entire two-year period, roughly one in four Americans report self-censoring at least a couple times per week.

That stability holds even across party lines. Independents consistently report higher levels of self-censorship than Democrats or Republicans, but rates for all three groups have changed little since January 2024. This suggests that self-censorship may reflect a relatively stable personal disposition rather than a reaction to political events.

Taken together, these findings paint a revealing portrait of Americans’ relationship with free expression. Beliefs about free speech appear to shift quickly with changes in political power. Actual behavior — whether people feel free enough to speak their minds — changes far less. In other words, political tides turn fast. But as for self-censorship, the chill lingers.