The decline of confidence in higher ed

FIRE data shows one-third of Americans have no confidence in U.S. colleges and universities

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Americans’ confidence in U.S. colleges and universities remains near historic lows. Although some have suggested that public opinion about higher education may be stabilizing or rising, our latest survey finds little evidence of meaningful recovery.

In our latest poll, conducted in partnership with NORC at the University of Chicago, less than a third of Americans say they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in U.S. colleges and universities. That’s statistically indistinguishable from 2024 and 2025 levels. At the same time, almost the same proportion report having “very little” or no confidence at all.

These results stand in stark contrast to public opinion a decade ago. In 2015, 57% of Americans told Gallup they had a great deal, or quite a lot, of confidence in higher education, while just 10% expressed very little confidence. By 2018, these figures were starting to slip, with high confidence decreasing and low confidence increasing. Since then, the decline has accelerated. Compared to 2015, the share of Americans expressing high confidence has fallen by 26 percentage points, while the share expressing very little confidence has nearly tripled.

Confidence in higher education also differs sharply according to one’s politics, with long-term drops driven primarily by Republicans and, to a lesser extent, Independents. In 2015, over half of Republicans expressed high confidence in higher education. Today, only 15% say the same. That’s a decline of 41 percentage points. Independents have also lost confidence. While nearly half expressed high confidence in 2015, only 16% did in 2025, before rebounding.

Democrats remain more confident than other groups, but even Democratic confidence has eroded. In 2015, more than two-thirds expressed high confidence. In 2026, only 45% do, the lowest level recorded for Democrats across these data. The overall result is not merely polarization, though that does explain part of what’s happening here. But also, what we’re seeing is a collapse of confidence in higher education across all partisan political groups.

On their own, these confidence trends reflect an untenable dynamic for higher education leaders. But viewed alongside other indicators, they suggest deeper structural problems. Some are starting to voice concerns about an impending enrollment cliff facing higher education, but data compiled by researchers such as Kevin Wallsten suggest that demographic change is only part of the story. Just as important are signs that many high schoolers — most notably males and Republicans — are less interested in graduating from college, that ideological diversity among professors and administrators is low and still declining, and that highly visible speech controversies continue to pile up.

If colleges and universities want to remain socially relevant and financially stable, they’re going to have to confront the reality that large segments of the public increasingly see them as exclusionary rather than open.

This has consequences beyond institutional reputation. For young adults, college degrees remain one of the most reliable pathways to future success, even as growing numbers question whether it is worth pursuing. Allowing confidence to stagnate or erode further risks not only institutional stability, but also the broad-based access to opportunity that higher education has long promised. We need our colleges and universities. But confidence cannot be restored unless colleges and universities are willing to earn it.